A New Assessment of Drought Risks on Economic and Social Sectors in Sukhothai Province, Thailand

Abstract

This research introduces a novel approach to assess multiple drought risks through the development of a comprehensive Drought Risk Index (CRI). This index is developed by multiplying a newly formulated Multiple Drought Hazard Index (MDHI) with a Combined Vulnerability Index (CVI) and a Combined Exposure Index (CEI). The MDHI accounts for the impacts of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts, while the CVI and CEI encompass combined economic and social dimensions. The computed drought risk maps delineate various risk levels across the Sukhothai Province from 2007 to 2020. Given data limitations, the observed drought damages in the area are utilized to estimate vulnerability. The economic analysis predominantly focuses on agricultural losses, whereas the social analysis examines the impacts on affected populations, households, particularly females, children, those in poverty, and the aging population. Economic exposure is assessed based on the values of agricultural products while social exposure is based on population density, households and vulnerable social contents. Analysis of drought risk maps spanning 2007 to 2020 reveals a consistent escalation in drought-affected areas, transitioning from absence of drought to severe occurrences over the decades. Evaluating direct impacts in monetary terms and the number of affected population and households provides valuable insights into the historical and present-day ramifications of droughts. This study pioneers a novel methodology for drought risk assessment, aiming to adapt and mitigate potential future drought impacts.